Polling on Proposition 1
For a long time leading up to the election, only vague polls were conducted on Proposition 1. None used the true ballot language, or talked about the costs.
The most recent poll, released by PPIC on Feb. 23, 2024, showed a significant decline in support (-9%) from the same group's prior poll, once the actual ballot language was read to voters.
Notably, both in Dec. 2023 and Feb. 2024, only 51% of voters said now is a "good time" for a pricey bond like Prop. 1. As news builds about the state’s budget deficit, cost concerns are prominent.
The reality is that Prop. 1 is both costly and polarizing, given the prominent role of Gov. Gavin Newsom. He was the primary driver of the legislation, he is the leading face of the campaign for it, and his political committee is the main financial sponsor of Prop. 1, all while his approval ratings are going down.
Every proposition must earn a “yes” vote. Measures that are costly tend to have the hardest time getting support from the voters. Voters are already showing they're worried about the costs of Prop. 1. That's why the measure could face a very hard road.
Here are a few recent polling results relevant to Prop. 1, with comments by opponents of the measure.
Public Policy Institute of California
Date published: Feb. 23, 2024
Poll conducted: Feb. 6-13, 2024
Audience: California likely voters
Overview by opponents:
Finally, a public poll uses the actual ballot language, including references to who supports, and who opposes. Arguably, this is the first reliable public poll to date on Prop. 1.
The survey still suffers from an odd methodology, which did not give voters a choice to be "undecided" on the measure. In forcing poll respondents to take a "for" or "against" position, the poll may overstate the "yes" vote, but we'll see.
The topline number for Prop. 1 is 59% in favor, which could mean that the measure is headed for victory. But this is really a "first impression" result, without any effort to ask people about arguments in favor or against.
It is very striking that the poll still shows only 51% think this is a "good time" for a $6.38 billion bond measure. This means that if voters are cost-conscious, fewer will vote "yes." This week's news is full of stories about California's $73 billion budget deficit, about twice what the governor claimed it would be.
Republican voters are now showing up as 2-1 against Gov. Newsom's pet project, Prop. 1, while both self-described Liberal and Democratic voters' support has dropped 10% since the poll published by PPIC in December. As the election gets closer, all of these groups are turning negative.
Proposition 1 is called the “Authorizes $6.38 Billion in Bonds to Build Mental Health Treatment Facilities for Those With Mental Health and Substance Use Challenges; Provides Housing for the Homeless. Legislative Statute.”
It amends the Health Services Act to provide additional behavioral health services. The fiscal impacts are to shift roughly $140 million annually of existing tax revenue for mental health, drug, and alcohol treatment from counties to the state and increase state bond repayment costs of $310 million annually for 30 years. Supporters include California Professional Firefighters; CA Assoc. of Veteran Service Agencies; National Alliance on Mental Illness—CA Opponents include Mental Health America of California; Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association; CalVoices.
If the election were today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 1?
Topline results:
Yes: 59%
No: 38%
DK: 2%
There is a second question, which again provides much more of a warning sign for Prop. 1.
Is this a good time or a bad time for the state to issue $6.38 billion in bonds to fund housing for homeless individuals and veterans with mental health or substance disorders?
Topline results:
Good time: 51%
Bad time: 49%
DK: 1%
Public Policy Institute of California
Date published: Dec. 7, 2023
Poll conducted: Nov. 9-16, 2023
Audience: California likely voters
Overview by opponents:
Absurdly high support levels are owed to a skewed question and strange methodology, which did not give voters a choice to be "undecided" on the measure.
A second question in the same poll shows how the peril for Prop. 1's costly bond when voters understand the costs.
Proposition 1 is the behavioral health services program and bond measure. It renames the Mental Health Services Act of 2004 to the Behavioral Health Services Act, and expands its purpose and funding to include substance abuse disorders and housing intervention programs. It authorizes $6.38 billion in state general obligation bonds to fund housing for homeless individuals and veterans with mental health or substance abuse disorders. If the election were today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 1?
Topline results:
Yes: 68%
No: 30%
DK: 2%
There is a second question, which is much more of a warning sign for Prop. 1.
Is this a good time or a bad time for the state to issue $6.38 billion in bonds to fund housing for homeless individuals and veterans with mental health or substance disorders?
Topline results:
Good time: 51%
Bad time: 46%
DK: 3%
Comment by opponents:
The initial question is surely the high-water mark for how well Prop. 1 could possibly perform, with two-thirds of voters saying “yes.” The second question demonstrates how “soft” support for the measure really is.
Most importantly, the first question on Prop. 1 in this PPIC poll does not use anything like the official ballot language, and does not state any of the annual costs of Prop. 1, merely speaking of how the measure “authorizes” bonds. Voters are not being challenged by much, with the question focused on (1) renaming a law, and (2) funding housing for the homeless.
The second question shows how voters’ own feelings undermine Prop. 1. Only a tiny majority (51%) believes that this is a “good time” for a $6.38 billion bond. Voters may like the concept of Prop. 1, but they are going to have a real battle in their minds over whether it’s worthwhile issuing this much money in new bonds. (Wait till they find out the true cost of the bond is over $9 billion.)
It’s worth looking at the partisan/ideological breakdown of support on both questions. First, the main question:
This generalized concept of Prop. 1 gets 45% support from “conservative” voters and 40% from registered Republicans on the first question. These voters were not told of Gov. Newsom’s ties to Prop. 1, they were not yet aware of the fact that Republican leaders in Sacramento authored arguments for the official ballot pamphlet against Prop. 1, or that the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association opposes it. It seems fanciful to believe that Gov. Newsom would generate such agreement from Republican voters in March.
Liberal voters were overwhelmingly in favor of the concept of the measure (91%) when told about it in these terms. However, this segment of voters may not like it as much when they learn that Prop. 1 will actually cut mental health services, among other negative impacts.
Breakdown by party/ideology on bond timing:
Comment by opponents:
Overall support drops by 17% when voters are simply asked if this is a “good time” for the bonds, or not. This falloff is across the board: There is a loss of 17% among Democrats, 16% among Republicans, 14% among liberals and 18% among conservatives.
It would not be surprising to see the first “real” tests of Prop. 1, using actual ballot language, showing support much more like what is seen in this “good time / bad time” question. It is definitely worth noting that the 51% saying "good time" for this proposed bond measure is greater than the 42% who said it was a "good time" for bonds generally, in a survey also conducted by PPIC just two months earlier.
Berkeley Institute for Government Studies
Date published: Nov. 7, 2023
Poll conducted: Oct. 24-30, 2023
Audience: “California likely voters”
Overview by opponents:
High levels of undecided voters, and a suspect question that talks about "amending" a "tax," which is the original voter-approved 1% surcharge on incomes over $1 million. (Prop. 1 doesn't change the tax, but does change the amount of money available for programs, and the kinds of programs that will be funded.)
Without any sense of the actual costs or tradeoffs in Prop. 1, voters do start out favorable. Even one third of Republicans. (That won't last.)
Proposition 1 is a $6.4 billion bond to pay for an estimated 10,000 new treatment beds and other supportive housing facilities for persons with serious mental illnesses or have serious substance abuse disorders. It also amends the states existing mental health services tax on persons with incomes over $1 million. If you were voting today, how would you vote on Proposition 1?
Topline results:
Yes: 60%
No: 17%
Und: 23%
Breakdown by party/ideology:
Comment by opponents:
Unlike the Dec. 2023 PPIC poll, this survey did allow people to say they didn’t know yet how they would vote. The "undecided" figure is high here (23%), probably because voters do not have much information about Prop. 1. It is worth noting that, historically, most “undecided” or confused voters will vote “no.” Therefore, the proper reading of this poll is more like 60-40.
Incredibly, Prop. 1 generates 33% support from both self-identified Republicans and “strongly conservative” voters. That seems an unlikely outcome in a real campaign. Without this sizable chunk of Republican supporters, total support would be at 51% instead of 60%.
Meantime, the measure gets virtually no opposition at all from Democrats and liberal voters (3%-6%). Again, the reality of a campaign is that a somewhat larger share of these voters are likely to develop concerns about Prop. 1 and end up leaning “no,” further shaving down the total “yes” vote.
The language of the question does not match the official ballot language and does not mention any cost for the measure, both shortcomings. And the question contains two “buzzwords” or concepts that voters might be reacting to: 1) the idea of building treatment beds and supportive housing for people with serious mental illness, and 2) the idea of taxing persons making over $1 million. We know that the millionaire’s tax concept is extremely popular, in part because it drove the success of the original Prop. 63. (Technically, the question speaks to how Prop. 1 “amends” the tax, but this very precise phrasing is likely to be lost in the reality of poll respondents’ reactions.)
The poll question does not mention the prominent role of Gov. Gavin Newsom in campaigning for Prop. 1. Yet the same survey by IGS found the governor’s support down to 44%, with 49% unhappy with his performance.
The governor cannot run away from Prop. 1, but his presence probably will not help it. In fact, the governor’s role likely will polarize Republican-leaning voters against it, accelerating their move away from the supposed 33% support initially seen here.
Public Policy Institute of California
Date published: Sept. 25, 2023
Poll conducted: Aug. 25-Sept. 5, 2023
Audience: “California likely voters”
Overview by opponents:
This poll is more generally about bond measures, with voters clearly registering that this does NOT seem like a good time. Warning, Prop. 1!
As you may know, the governor and legislature are considering several state bond measures to pay for multi-billion dollar, multi-year state infrastructure projects and state programs to bring to California voters as propositions on the 2024 election ballot. Is this a good time or a bad time for the state to issue bonds to pay for state projects and programs?
Topline results:
Good time: 42%
Bad time: 55%
Und: 3%
Breakdown by party/ideology:
Comment by opponents:
The question is not about Prop. 1, but only whether this seems like generally a “good time” or “bad time” for something like its $6.4 billion bond. Only 42% say it’s a “good time,” and both Republican and independent voters say, overwhelmingly, it’s a “bad time.”
The Republican tally against bonds at this time is 82%, with only 16% in support. (This cuts in half the level of Republican support for Prop. 1 found in the IGS poll.)
While none of this information is specific to Prop. 1, mental health or homelessness, it is a warning sign for anyone pushing a pricey bond at the March ballot. The voters start out very skeptical of the idea, even before they are told how much it will cost to service those bonds after they are issued.
Santa Monica Pulse / Eyes on 11
Date published: Dec. 5, 2023
Poll conducted: Nov. 30-Dec. 4, 2023
Audience: 130 “civically engaged residents”
Overview by opponents:
Included as a curiosity, this Santa Monica survey went strongly against Prop. 1.
The Santa Monica City Council recently voted to endorse Proposition 1, a state ballot initiative set for a vote in March 2024. Proponents say it would reallocate billions of dollars to help homeless Californians and those struggling with substance use. Opponents say the measure will only throw more money at a more nuanced issue. Knowing this, would you vote in favor of Proposition 1?
Topline results:
Yes: 19%
No: 49%
Und: 31%
Comment by opponents:
This is a highly unreliable, non-scientific survey, sent out by text invitation to 1,000 people on a mailing list, and with results reported as they came in, unweighted.
The question, also, is a poor description of Proposition 1, speaking only of “reallocat[ing]” billions of dollars, without noting the issuance of $6.4 billion in new bonds, or the associated costs to taxpayers. Finally, the question characterizes opponents’ arguments as being a shallow statement that Prop. 1 “will only throw more money at a more nuanced issue.”
Still, almost half of Santa Monicans surveyed said “no” to Prop. 1, within days of the City Council having voted to support it, an eye-opening result.
Basic Facts
Human Costs of Prop. 1's Cuts
Costs of Prop. 1
Rebutting Prop. 1 Claims
